
ADVANCED PRODUCTION PLANNING & INVENTORY CONTROL (MGMT717)
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Demand 60 55 43 65 52 42 47 59 63 44 55 49 ?
ASSIGNMENT # 1
Due Date: November 27, 2019 Marks: 10 SCENARIO:
The supply chain manager of a manufacturing company is interested in finding the best method of forecasting for a special set of gears that enhances the speed of the car. He is
confused between “Weighted Moving Average” method and “Exponential Smoothing” method. The demand of the product is given in the following table:QUESTIONS:
Your task is to help the manager to arrive at a decision by forecasting the demands for all possible months through the following methods:
a. 3Period Weighted Moving Average with weights 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 (the most recent period carries maximum weight). (4)
b. Exponential Smoothing with 𝛼 = 0.2 (4) Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for both methods and conclude which forecasting model is more appropriate for the product. (2)
Instructions:
• Use the demand of the first month as the Forecast of the first month for the sake of calculations
• You have to calculate forecasts and present these in tables
• Write formulae and show necessary calculations
• You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copypaste tables in your solution file (MS
Word format)
• Watch video lectures and consult book to complete the assignment
Important:24 hours extra / grace period after the due date are usually available to overcome uploading difficulties. This extra time should only be used to meet the emergencies and above mentioned due dates should always be treated as final to avoid any inconvenience.
Deadline:
• Make sure to upload the solution file before the due date on VULMS.
• Any submission made via email after the due date will not be accepted.
Formatting Guidelines:
• Use the font style “Times New Roman” or “Arial” and font size “12”.
• It is advised to compose your document in MSWord format.
• You may also compose your assignment in Open Office format.
• Use black and blue font colors only.
Referencing Guidelines:
• Use APA style for referencing and citation. For guidance search “APA reference style” in Google and read various websites containing information for better understanding or visit http://linguistics.byu.edu/faculty/henrichsenl/apa/APA01.html
Rules for Marking
Please note that your assignment will not be graded or graded as Zero (0), if:
• Any of the given instructions is not followed
• It is copied or plagiarized
• It is submitted after the due date.
• The file you uploaded does not open or is corrupt. 
SEMESTER FALL 2019
The company has forecasted the demand of the tables for the next six month, given as follows: Month January February March April May June Demand 15000 20000 15000 25000 35000 10000
Advanced Production Planning and Inventory Control (MGMT717) ASSIGNMENT NO.02
Total Marks: 10 Scenario:
Due Date: 29th January, 2020
Wood Maestros, a furniture company has a product line of wooden tables. The raw material (wood, nails, glue etc.) used in all designs is the same and the only difference is in the designs of the tables. The designs are simple yet fascinating and it takes one and half hour to make a table of any design. The raw material cost for each table is same i.e. Rs.2000 per unit and each table is sold for Rs.3000.The company employs daily waged workers for the manufacturing process. The cost to hire and train a
worker is Rs.5000; whereas when a worker is fired, it costs Rs.8000 to the company.
The company operates 20 days in a month with an 8 hours shift daily. The workers are paid at the rate of Rs.100 per working hour. Any extra product is kept as inventory which incurs a holding cost of Rs.10 per unit per month. At times when the company is unable to fulfill demand, it faces a Backlog situation which costs the company Rs.200 per unit per month and this unmet demand is fulfilled from the production of the following month.
The supply chain manager is interested to know whether the Chase Strategy or the Level Strategy would be feasible for the company based on the total costs.
Task:
Being operations manager of the company, your objective is to decide a suitable strategy (either Level or Chase) based on the total costs if the beginning inventory and the workforce are zero.Instructions:
You are required to calculate total cost for both strategies.
Show the necessary calculations in solution in a table form.
No theoretical definitions and explanations are required.
Watch video lectures and consult book/notes to complete the assignment
Important:
24 hours extra / grace period after the due date are usually available to overcome uploading difficulties. This extra time should only be used to meet the emergencies and above mentioned due dates should always be treated as final to avoid any inconvenience.
Deadline:
Make sure to upload the solution file before the due date on VULMS.
Any submission made via email after the due date will not be accepted.
Formatting Guidelines:
Use the font style “Times New Roman” or “Arial” and font size “12”.
It is advised to compose your document in MSWord format.
You may also compose your assignment in Open Office format.
Use black and blue font colours only.
Referencing Guidelines:
Use APA style for referencing and citation. For guidance search “APA reference style” in Google and read various websites containing information for better understanding or visit
http://linguistics.byu.edu/faculty/henrichsenl/apa/APA01.html
Rules for Marking
Please note that your assignment will not be graded or graded as Zero (0), if:
Any of the given instructions is not followed
It is copied or plagiarized
It is submitted after the due date.
The file you uploaded does not open or is corrupt.
SOLVED MGMT717 Assignment 1 Solution and Discussion

ADVANCED PRODUCTION PLANNING & INVENTORY CONTROL (MGMT717)
ASSIGNMENT # 1
Due Date: November 27, 2019 Marks: 10 SCENARIO:
The supply chain manager of a manufacturing company is interested in finding the best method of forecasting for a special set of gears that enhances the speed of the car. He is
confused between “Weighted Moving Average” method and “Exponential Smoothing” method. The demand of the product is given in the following table:Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Demand 60 55 43 65 52 42 47 59 63 44 55 49 ? QUESTIONS:
 Your task is to help the manager to arrive at a decision by forecasting the demands for all possible months through the following methods:
a. 3Period Weighted Moving Average with weights 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 (the most recent period carries maximum weight). (4)
b. Exponential Smoothing with 𝛼 = 0.2 (4)  Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for both methods and conclude which forecasting model is more appropriate for the product. (2)
Instructions:
• Use the demand of the first month as the Forecast of the first month for the sake of calculations
• You have to calculate forecasts and present these in tables
• Write formulae and show necessary calculations
• You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copypaste tables in your solution file (MS
Word format)
• Watch video lectures and consult book to complete the assignment
Important:
24 hours extra / grace period after the due date are usually available to overcome uploading difficulties. This extra time should only be used to meet the emergencies and above mentioned due dates should always be treated as final to avoid any inconvenience.
Deadline:
• Make sure to upload the solution file before the due date on VULMS.
• Any submission made via email after the due date will not be accepted.
Formatting Guidelines:
• Use the font style “Times New Roman” or “Arial” and font size “12”.
• It is advised to compose your document in MSWord format.
• You may also compose your assignment in Open Office format.
• Use black and blue font colors only.
Referencing Guidelines:
• Use APA style for referencing and citation. For guidance search “APA reference style” in Google and read various websites containing information for better understanding or visit http://linguistics.byu.edu/faculty/henrichsenl/apa/APA01.html
Rules for Marking
Please note that your assignment will not be graded or graded as Zero (0), if:
• Any of the given instructions is not followed
• It is copied or plagiarized
• It is submitted after the due date.
• The file you uploaded does not open or is corrupt.  Your task is to help the manager to arrive at a decision by forecasting the demands for all possible months through the following methods:

Solution: 1.
a) Weighted Moving Average:Month Demand Forecast Error Error 1 60 2 55 3 43 4 65 50.0 15.0 15.0 5 52 56.4 4.4 4.4 6 42 54.1 12.1 12.1 7 47 49.6 2.6 2.6 8 59 46.5 12.5 12.5 9 63 52.0 11.0 11.0 10 44 58.6 14.6 14.6 11 55 52.7 2.3 2.3 12 49 53.3 4.3 4.3 13 ? 49.8 Total 78.8  Forecast for Period 4 = 430.5 + 550.3 + 60*0.2
 Forecast for Period 5 = 650.5 + 430.3 + 55*0.2
 Forecast for Period 13 = 490.5 + 550.3 + 44*0.2 = 49.8
b) Exponential Smoothing:
𝛼=0.2Month Demand Forecast Error Error Month Demand Forecast Error Error 1 60 60.00 2 55 60.00 5.00 5.00 3 43 59.00 16.00 16.00 4 65 55.0 9.20 9.20 5 52 55.8 5.64 5.64 6 42 57.64 14.51 14.51 7 47 56.51 6.61 6.61 8 59 53.61 6.71 6.71 9 63 53.63 9.37 9.37 10 44 55.50 11.50 11.50 11 55 53.2 1.80 1.80 12 49 53.56 4.56 4.56 13 ? 52.65 Total 90.90  Ft+1 =Ft +α(At –Ft) or Ft+1 =αAt +(1–α)Ft
 F1 = A1 (Supposed) = 60
 F2 =F1 +α(A1 –F1)=60+0.2(60–60)=60
 F3 =F2 +α(A2 –F2)=60+0.2(55–60)=59
 F13 =F12 +α(A12 –F12)=53.56+0.2(49–53.56)=52.65
 MAD
MAD = ∑ Actual Demand – Forecast / n
a) Weighted Moving Average:
 MAD=78.8/9=8.76
b) Exponential Smoothing:  MAD=90.90/11=8.26
As MAD of Exponential Smoothing is less than that of Weighted Moving Average, it is concluded that Exponential Smoothing is more appropriate.

Solution: 1.
a) Weighted Moving Average:Month Demand Forecast Error Error 1 60 2 55 3 43 4 65 50.0 15.0 15.0 5 52 56.4 4.4 4.4 6 42 54.1 12.1 12.1 7 47 49.6 2.6 2.6 8 59 46.5 12.5 12.5 9 63 52.0 11.0 11.0 10 44 58.6 14.6 14.6 11 55 52.7 2.3 2.3 12 49 53.3 4.3 4.3 13 ? 49.8 Total 78.8  Forecast for Period 4 = 430.5 + 550.3 + 60*0.2
 Forecast for Period 5 = 650.5 + 430.3 + 55*0.2
 Forecast for Period 13 = 490.5 + 550.3 + 44*0.2 = 49.8
b) Exponential Smoothing:
𝛼=0.2Month Demand Forecast Error Error Month Demand Forecast Error Error 1 60 60.00 2 55 60.00 5.00 5.00 3 43 59.00 16.00 16.00 4 65 55.0 9.20 9.20 5 52 55.8 5.64 5.64 6 42 57.64 14.51 14.51 7 47 56.51 6.61 6.61 8 59 53.61 6.71 6.71 9 63 53.63 9.37 9.37 10 44 55.50 11.50 11.50 11 55 53.2 1.80 1.80 12 49 53.56 4.56 4.56 13 ? 52.65 Total 90.90  Ft+1 =Ft +α(At –Ft) or Ft+1 =αAt +(1–α)Ft
 F1 = A1 (Supposed) = 60
 F2 =F1 +α(A1 –F1)=60+0.2(60–60)=60
 F3 =F2 +α(A2 –F2)=60+0.2(55–60)=59
 F13 =F12 +α(A12 –F12)=53.56+0.2(49–53.56)=52.65
 MAD
MAD = ∑ Actual Demand – Forecast / n
a) Weighted Moving Average:
 MAD=78.8/9=8.76
b) Exponential Smoothing:  MAD=90.90/11=8.26
As MAD of Exponential Smoothing is less than that of Weighted Moving Average, it is concluded that Exponential Smoothing is more appropriate.